The Xchange Platform Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

La Niña prospects in the upcoming 2024/25 season are a welcome development

Loading player...
After a challenging El Niño induced drought season in 2023/24 summer, South Africa’s agriculture may get a relief in the upcoming 2024/25 summer season.

Early indications of weather prospects are encouraging, showing a firm likelihood of a La Niña occurrence. The International Research Institute for Climate Change and Society at Columbia University places the probability of a La Niña occurrence at over 50% between now and April 2025. Such weather events typically bring above-average rainfall across South Africa and the entire Southern region.

There is hope that after a challenging 2023/24 summer production season, South Africa could transition into a favourable agricultural season, similar to what we experienced four seasons before the 2023/24 season.

Given that South Africa had one of the most prolonged periods of La Niña induced rains, from the 2019/20 season to the 2022/23 season, the news of an end to the 2023/24 season El Niño is a welcome development.

Listen to the podcast for more information.

Podcast production by Lwandiso Gwarubana, Richard Humphries, and Sam Mkokeli

My writing on agricultural economic matters is available on my blog: https://wandilesihlobo.com/
15 Jul 2024 English South Africa Investing · Food

Other recent episodes

South Africa's agricultural machinery sales remain strong

One of the interlinked industries that tends to benefit when the agricultural sector is thriving is the agricultural machinery industry. This year is no different; South Africa's agricultural machinery sales have remained reasonably robust since the start of 2025. I suspect the sales are likely to continue at this encouraging…
5 Sep 10 min

Zimbabwe bans maize imports

The Zimbabwean government has reinstated a ban on maize imports. The government believes that in the interim, there are sufficient supplies for the local market and wants to ensure maximum price realisation for the domestic producers before allowing imports. Nevertheless, it remains unclear if Zimbabwe has sufficient maize supplies for…
1 Sep 12 min

South Africa’s agricultural sector may see an uneven recovery in 2025

We continue to see more evidence that 2025 will likely be an uneven recovery for South Africa’s agriculture. The horticulture (fruits and vegetables), and field crops (grains, oilseeds and sugarcane) are experiencing excellent yield recovery, benefiting from better summer and winter rains. But the livestock and poultry industries face some…
15 Aug 10 min

The Far East countries are back buying SA's maize

South Africa's maize exports are back in the Far East export markets. These aren't new territories for our maize. We typically export to them during the seasons of abundance, such as this one. Last season, we did not see many maize exports to the Far East. Our export activity focused…
8 Aug 10 min
All episodes