US confidence ebbs on tariff uncertainty
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In this podcast, STANLIB Chief Economist Kevin Lings says US consumer price inflation (CPI) data for February, released last week, was a positive surprise. It showed even shelter inflation is on a downward trajectory. However, the data does not take recently-announced tariff increases into account. On 2 April the Trump administration is expected to implement the tariff increases it has deferred.
US survey data shows an increase in inflation expectations by households and an expectation by businesses that economic activity will slow down. The risk of a US recession is rising, although it is not yet becoming a certainty. This makes it difficult for the US Federal Reserve to decide on interest rates. The market is anticipating two or three more interest rate cuts this year, but that may prove to be over-optimistic.
Click here to listen to the podcast.
US survey data shows an increase in inflation expectations by households and an expectation by businesses that economic activity will slow down. The risk of a US recession is rising, although it is not yet becoming a certainty. This makes it difficult for the US Federal Reserve to decide on interest rates. The market is anticipating two or three more interest rate cuts this year, but that may prove to be over-optimistic.
Click here to listen to the podcast.
